What does Russia offer Ukraine and its neighbours?

With Russian troops now moving in to eastern Ukraine, most analysis has focused on Russian motives, how an intervention would impact the geo-political map and how the West should respond. However, analysts rarely examine why Ukraine, along with the majority of states in eastern Europe, have drifted out of alignment with Moscow. Since the end of the Cold War, Russia has sought to influence the political, economic, social, and foreign policy orientation of post-Soviet states and bring them into its geopolitical orbit. These efforts have been hampered by Russia’s failure to limit corruption which has undermined the appeal of alignment with the Russian state. If Russia wants to build lasting influence with its neighbours, it needs sustained internal reform.

What does alignment with Russia offer?

Alignment with Russia does offer some benefits, though these have been largely insufficient to encourage closer ties with its eastern European neighbours.

Russian speakers living outside Russia look to Moscow to defend their interests, not without reason given the discrimination they have faced since the collapse of the USSR. Though exaggerating, Putin has cited Russophobia as a potential justification for action in Ukraine, referring to the situation of Russian-speakers in Donbas as looking like genocide.

The other potential advantages are stability and resources. Putin’s legitimacy within Russia is based, strongly, on him restoring order after the chaos of the Yeltsin-era. Close partnership with Russia also offers some countries in its orbit access to subsidies and its markets.

Despite some benefits, close alignment with Russia risks greater exposure to the systematic corruption prevalent within the institutions of the Russian state so there are limited prospects for long-term support for alignment amongst the non-Russian majorities living in eastern Europe.

Corruption is a defining characteristic of the Russian state, with the country ranking 129th out of 180 countries in Transparency International’s Corruption Perceptions Index for 2020; the lowest rating for any European country. This essentially means the Russian government is unable or unwilling to control corruption which has a direct impact on its ability to provide key public services. Taking policing as an example. Russian police are comparatively violent, tend to favour the interests of political elites and are highly corrupt. Bribery of traffic police is an everyday occurrence in Russia and, at higher levels, police are complicit in racketeering and organized crime. A high-profile 2021 investigation provided a surreal example of this with a senior police officer found to have used the proceeds of a racketeering scheme to fund an opulent mansion, including a golden toilet. All this is directly linked to the broader political system which authorizes, directs and pays police and does not hold them accountable. Such a pattern is common across the former Soviet Union. The exceptions to this are the Baltic states and Georgia which have reduced police violence and corruption by directly challenging Soviet-era forms of governance.